Crude at 103: does the climb continue or snap back?

Crude at 103: does the climb continue or snap back? WTI CRUDE OIL TVC:USOIL Rizq-FX US crude (USOIL) closed the week at 103.45, up from the early-October low near 88.5 and now stretched about 2 ATR above its month average. The September high near 107.5 is the next big line above; 94.39 is the line the up read depends on. Key levels - 107.5: the September peak, the next ceiling. - 103.45: Friday's close, near the top of the recent range. - 99.13: the week average, the first support under price. - 94.39: the month average. A close below it breaks the up read. - 86.86: the last confirmed swing low. A close below it cancels the swing-up read. If it goes up: (most likely) What would show it: daily closes holding above 99 with higher lows, then a close above 105. Where to act: long from 99 to 101 on a pullback that holds; out below 94.4; first target 107.5. Odds: likely. If it goes sideways: What would show it: price stalls between 99 and 105 and keeps crossing the week line. Price is already stretched above its average, so a pause is normal. Where to act: stay patient until a daily close settles it. Wait for a close beyond 99 or 105, or work the edges with a tight out level. Odds: possible. If it goes down: What would show it: a daily close under 99, then under 94.4 (the month line). That would send price back toward the 88 to 90 area. Where to act: short from 97 to 99 after a failed bounce; out above 103.5; first target 94.4, then 90. Odds: less likely. Intermarket read: oil rising while stocks fall is supply or risk pricing, not a warning on its own. Read it together with the dollar and yields before treating it as a stress signal. Elliott Wave counted the swings and found no clean five-wave run yet (other counts fit too), VWAP drew the week and month average lines with their bands, and RSI drew the momentum turns. Not financial advice.