XAUUSD – Below H4, Eyeing 4494

XAUUSD – Below H4, Eyeing 4494 Gold vs US Dollar PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD Leo_WarRoom XAUUSD has already tested the H4 Turn around 4431 and has started to pull back slightly, but structurally this is not yet a bearish reversal. It looks more like a sideways accumulation phase within the 4317–4430 range before the market chooses its next expansion. Buy-side pressure remains dominant, so pullbacks toward 4411, 4361, or even deeper to 4326 should be viewed as potential reaction zones rather than immediate signs of a broken trend. Under the current structure, if support holds, the next upside target remains 4494, potentially later today or tomorrow. From a price action / SMC perspective, the market is moving in a typical mitigation pattern after testing a premium zone: price tags the upper area, faces short-term rejection, then sweeps lower turn levels to absorb liquidity before attempting the next leg higher. The key here is not to assume price will rally in a straight line, but to watch whether buyers continue to defend structure around 4411 / 4361 / 4326. If reactions are clean at those levels, the move toward 4494 becomes much more convincing. On the macro side, gold is still supported by a constructive backdrop: the latest gold price is around 4400.80 USD/oz, up 0.70% on the day, 9.97% on the month, and 31.11% year-on-year. Support continues to come from investment demand, purchases by China’s central bank, and defensive sentiment linked to uncertainty around the Hormuz/Iran situation. However, there is still a counterweight from upcoming U.S. inflation data, as the Fed could maintain a hawkish tone if CPI or PPI comes in hot. On the USD side, the DXY is around 99.88, slightly higher on the day but still down 1.34% over the month, which means the dollar is not yet strong enough to invalidate gold’s short-term bullish structure. The biggest catalysts this week remain CPI on Aug 12, PPI + Jobless Claims on Aug 13, and Retail Sales on Aug 14. If the data comes in softer than expected, gold will have a stronger case for continuation; if CPI/PPI surprises to the upside, price could become much more volatile inside the current consolidation zone. The more strategic approach here is not to chase price in the middle of the range, but to use small-sized entries at the turn zones, then drop to M1/M5 for confirmation of entry, take-profit, and stop-loss placement. In a market where the primary trend remains bullish but price is consolidating just below an H4 resistance zone, the edge belongs to traders who wait for the right reaction area instead of buying emotionally in the middle of noise. Core idea: XAUUSD is in a strategic re-accumulation phase below the H4 Turn at 4431; if the 4411 / 4361 / 4326 zones continue to hold structure, the market still has a high probability of extending toward 4494 in the short term.