PETERSON: Iowa State’s path to a five-win season

April 25, 2026 — Ames, Iowa: Iowa State head coach Jimmy Rogers looks on during a team scrimmage at the Cyclones’ spring showcase at Jack Trice Stadium. (Photo by Jacqueline Cordova/Cyclone Fanatic) Often at this juncture of college football’s long offseason, it’s stylish to look at each team’s toughest opponents. Arizona, for example, has a killer Big 12 schedule that includes games at BYU, at Kansas State, and at Kansas. Houston has road games against Texas Tech, Kansas State and Utah. Those aren’t gimme opponents, regardless of who you are. In Iowa State’s case — and for a plethora of reasons that include the new-look Cyclones being picked to finish 16th out of the Big 12’s 16 teams — let’s try something different. Who are Iowa State’s five most beatable opponents? Don’t confuse this with teams Jimmy Rogers’ first Iowa State team should beat. When you’ve got a roster full of free agents, as Rogers does, nothing is a given — and that includes success against opponents most likely to occupy the lower five rungs of the Big 12 standings. Translated: If the Cyclones are to surprise the Big 12 football world with a handful of wins, here are the five best ways to do it. ** WHO: Southeast MissouriWHEN/WHERE: Sept. 5, noon, at Jack Trice StadiumWHY IOWA STATE CAN WIN: This should be the easiest pick of Iowa State’s (allegedly) easiest five opponents. Forget that SEMO went 4-8 last season; in this game, that’s a non-factor. The Cyclones win because Jack Trice Stadium will be rockin’. First game for the new coach. First game in which fans of legal age can purchase beer. First Iowa State game for nearly everyone on the roster. This was a cinch choice. Cheers! ** WHO: Bowling GreenWHEN/WHERE: Sept. 19, 11 a.m., at Jack Trice StadiumWHY IOWA STATE CAN WIN: The Falcons have had eight losing seasons in the past 10 years. Another is likely in Eddie George’s second season as head coach. He’s a legendary former player who is still building a roster capable of competing in the MAC. A 2-1 record heading into Big 12 play is the most likely Cyclones scenario. I’ll drink to that. ** WHO: West VirginiaWHEN/WHERE: Oct. 3, at Jack Trice StadiumWHY IOWA STATE CAN WIN: This matchup, as strange as it sounds, could favor Iowa State. The Mountaineers will push the offensive tempo against a Cyclones defense that’s moving away from the three-man front used the past few seasons. The unknown factor on that side of the ball, plus the home crowd, could play nicely into Iowa State’s hands. ** WHO: Oklahoma StateWHEN/WHERE: Oct. 31, at Jack Trice StadiumWHY IOWA STATE CAN WIN: This stat still amazes me — how a once-respected program can lose 20 of its past 21 games. You think Iowa State has a lot of transfers? So do the Cowboys under new coach Eric Morris. He ran a quick, offense-heavy system at North Texas, where his team passed for 4,841 yards and 36 touchdowns while averaging a nation’s-best 45.1 points per game. The game is in Ames, where late-October weather isn’t always conducive to high scoring. ** WHO: CincinnatiWHEN/WHERE: Nov. 14, at Jack Trice StadiumWHY IOWA STATE CAN WIN: In the Bearcats, Iowa State meets its match — new coordinators, new quarterback, no expectations. Cincinnati enters this game after facing Houston, Utah and Texas Tech. In the Big 12, that’s about as tough as it gets. It’s a home game for the Cyclones, and that could be the difference. ** (Columnist Randy Peterson, a past Iowa Sportswriter of the Year winner, can be reached at randypete4846@gmail.com or at any Okoboji-area beverage/food establishment between the hours of open and close.) The post PETERSON: Iowa State’s path to a five-win season appeared first on Cyclone Fanatic.