Where severe storms could strike in Minnesota on Thursday and Friday

After some strong-ish storms moved into western Minnesota Wednesday night and dissipated as they moved to the east, more storms could flare up and turn severe in some of the same areas on Thursday evening. There's a level 2 of 5 slight risk of severe storms in far western Minnesota today, along with a level 1 of 5 marginal risk further east, including places like Mankato and the Twin Cities. "Strong heating in this corridor will promote scattered thunderstorms after [3 p.m.]. Forecast soundings suggest an environment favorable for hail and damaging winds in the strongest cells," says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). If the clouds clear out, there could be more storms that develop. But if the clouds persist, the thunderstorm threat will be reduced, according to the National Weather Service. "In other words, this is a scenario where you don`t need to cancel any plans for the day, but it is a good idea to stay weather aware and have a plan in place if any storms develop," the weather service says. The HRRR model shows some storms, likely below severe limits, firing around 3 p.m. in far southern Minnesota, followed by strong cells erupting between 5 and 7 p.m. in west-central Minnesota. Those storms eventually make their way towards the Twin Cities in a weakened state late Thursday night. The RRFS model is similar to the HRRR, with the strongest cells today in western parts of the state. Friday's severe threat might wind up more in Iowa than Minnesota, but that won't be determined until Thursday night's storms push through. "Nonetheless, the presence of a moderately unstable air mass and modest deep-layer shear will be supportive of a few severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts," the SPC says. The HRRR model's radar simulation from 12 p.m. Friday to 1 a.m. Saturday isn't very impressive, but again, these simulations are only as good as the current conditions, and the conditions will change with the evolution of today's storms. The weekend should be nice, albeit a bit humid, but more active weather is expected next week as temperatures could be soaring into the mid-90s, with dew points in the 60s and 70s. With that will come frequent rain and storm chances.