Market Video Report: Bitcoin Duration 22:33 mins. Summary Bitcoin is consolidating in a high-timeframe trading range, with summer compression and weekly inside bars signaling an upcoming volatility expansion. While a third push down toward the $50,000 magnet remains possible, lower bounds favor buyers. The daily chart displays a parabolic wedge near major support, favoring a double-bottom reversal over a 25% breakdown risk. Transcript Welcome back to this week’s Bitcoin price action analysis. My name is Josep Capo, and I am a trader and author for the Brooks Trading Course. Today, we will analyze Bitcoin’s weekly and daily charts, followed by a breakdown of how I approach swing trading crypto on swing trading timeframes. Weekly Chart of Bitcoin on August 15th 2026 Price action analysis always begins with context. Bitcoin is currently in a trading range environment rather than a strong trending market. Following a major bear move and channel down, momentum stalled, and price action has moved sideways since February, remaining around the same price levels. On the higher timeframe—specifically the monthly chart—Bitcoin is coming off a long-term bull trend. Because a long-term bull trend usually transitions into a trading range rather than an immediate bear trend, there is roughly a 60% probability that we are near the bottom of a trading range. In this context, buyers are more likely to step in below previous key lows, such as the January and February lows. However, price is following a lower channel line in a wedge pattern. A third push down could test the $50,000 level, which acts as a major magnet—second in Big Round Number importance only to the $100,000 level. Summer price action across July and August has compressed into a tight range. The weekly chart shows consecutive inside bars, signaling contracting volatility. While an inside-inside setup following a climax typically offers a 50% chance of a 2:1 reward-to-risk continuation and a 50% chance of a 2:1 reversal, an inside-inside pattern within a tight trading range is largely meaningless. Bears view this structure as a bear flag, relying on an open micro-gap above the previous low. The market has not flipped to Always-In Long, giving bears short-term control with the potential to push down toward $50,000. Bulls attempted a High 1 test and failed, and their High 2 major higher low setup is currently struggling. Bulls need a clear bull breakout with strong follow-through before committing. While consecutive bear closes near bar lows favor bears, selling late in a channel (on a third leg down) within a tight trading range carries a high risk of reversal. Expect sideways action and remain patient. Daily Chart of Bitcoin on August 15th 2026 The daily chart shows price compressing within a defined range between recent highs and lows. This summer lull reflects low desk activity, but compression inevitably leads to expansion. While the market is in breakout mode, traders must wait for the actual breakout to occur. To confirm a sustained upside trend, bulls need a strong breakout above the critical local high accompanied by follow-through. Recently, bulls attempted a three-leg rally into a double top, but bears aggressively reversed the move with five consecutive bear bars. Price is currently forming a wedgy, three-leg parabolic push down. Typically, a five-bar reversal or sideways-to-up move follows a wedge. While a reversal up from this double bottom remains the higher-probability outcome, a bear breakdown still occurs roughly 25% of the time. If bears achieve a strong breakdown below the parabolic wedge, a measured move based on the height of the range points to lower targets. Bear traders will look for either rapid momentum toward trading range lows or a second leg down reaching the measured move target. Market analysis reports archive You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
